A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
